NIAMEY (Reuters) – The likely flight of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi from Libya to neighbouring Niger leaves the West African nation trying to balance its commitment to the International Criminal Court with avoiding another rebellion by heavily armed Tuareg tribesmen.

After the killing of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya itself risks tribal violence, insurgency and chaos unless Tripoli's new government disarms regional militias and eases the grievances bottled up during 42 years of one-man rule.

Thought to be on the run somewhere in the mountains on Libya's southern borders with Algeria and Niger, Saif al-Islam, 39, is desperately seeking to avoid the fate of his father, who was beaten, abused and shot as forces of Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) captured him on October 20 after the fall of his home town Sirte.

Saif al-Islam's surrender to the ICC would help restore the image of the NATO-backed campaign to overthrow Gaddafi which was tarnished in the eyes of some in the West by film of the former strongman humiliated, killed and put on public display.

The ICC wants to try Saif al-Islam for crimes against humanity and its prosecutor said on Sunday he had “substantial evidence” that Saif al-Islam had helped hire mercenaries to attack Libyan civilians protesting against his father's rule.

“We have a witness who explained how Saif was involved with the planning of the attacks against civilians, including in particular the hiring of core mercenaries from different countries and the transport of them, and also the financial aspects he was covering,” ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo told Reuters during a visit to Beijing.

“So we have substantial evidence to prove the case, but of course Saif is still (presumed) innocent, and (will) have to go to court and the judge will decide,” he said.

Moreno-Ocampo said he would brief the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday about the court's work in Libya.

A senior member of Niger's coalition government told Reuters Saif al-Islam's whereabouts remained unknown, but that surrender was his best option. Niger would cooperate with the ICC to ensure he was handed over as safely as possible.

“It's perhaps best that he goes of his own accord rather than to be hunted and caught by Libyans who will end up lynching him as they did to his father,” said Habi Mahamadou Salissou, vice-president of the Nigerien Democratic Movement.

But Tuareg nomads straddling the border region, many of them returning home with their weapons after fighting for Gaddafi in Libya, still feel a sense of loyalty to the late dictator who bankrolled their revolts in Niger.

“Gaddafi backed virtually all the rebellions in Niger and then managed to find a solution to them,” said Salissou, a former foreign minister.

“NO NEGOTIATIONS”

Now Niger risks sparking a new Tuareg revolt if it mishandles any entry by Saif al-Islam onto its soil, a leading human rights official there said.

“Niger has the same border, is part of the same family as Libya and has lots of ties with Libya and the Libyans of Gaddafi,” said Moustapha Kadi, national coordinator of Niger's human rights and democracy groups.

“Even if the government takes the decision (to hand al-Islam over) national opinion must be consulted to make sure that this does not create further tensions — that is the last thing we need right now,” he said in an interview.

Thanks in part to talks hosted by Gaddafi, Niger and neighbouring Mali managed in 2009 to seal a shaky peace with Tuareg rebels after a two-year insurgency that was just the latest bout of unrest in the north going back decades.

“If he decides to seek asylum, the government is free to study that – without ruling out the ICC's request. We should put Niger's interests first,” said Kadi. “We have just got shot of a rebellion. We don't want any more conflict in the north.”

The NTC may try Saif al-Islam itself, but the fugitive Libyan has been in indirect contact with the ICC over a possible surrender, though he may also harbour hopes that mercenaries can spirit him to a friendly African country.

Algeria, which took in Saif al-Islam's mother, sister, brother Hannibal and half-brother Mohammed, is not a signatory to the treaty that set up the ICC. Nor is Sudan or Zimbabwe.

The Hague-based ICC has warned Saif al-Islam that it could order a mid-air interception if he tried to flee by plane from his unidentified Sahara desert hideout for a safe haven.

“We received through an informal intermediary some questions from Saif apparently about the legal system — what happens to him if he appears before the judges, can he be sent to Libya, what happens if he's convicted, what happens if he's acquitted,” said Moreno-Ocampo.

“We are not in any negotiations with Saif,” he said, adding that the ICC would not later force him to return to Libya provided another country is willing to receive him after he is either acquitted or is convicted and has served his sentence.

The NTC's interim information minister, Mahmoud Shammam, said the council had not discussed the indirect contacts between Saif al-Islam and the ICC. “We don't have a formal position on the reports,” he told Reuters in Tripoli.

Before a popular uprising imperiled his father's grip on Libya, Saif al-Islam had cast himself as an enlightened supporter of reform at home and across the Arab world. But then he swore to crush opponents of his father's 42-year rule.

Asked about Saif al-Islam's metamorphosis, Moreno-Ocampo said: “After all these years, nothing surprises me.”

(Additional reporting by Barry Malone in Tripoli, Samia Nakhoul in London, Ibrahim Diallo in Agadez and Abdoulaye Massalaatchi in Niamey; Writing by Jon Hemming; Editing by Myra MacDonald)

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Rwanda experienced Africa's worst genocide in modern times, and the country's recovery was marred by its intervention in the conflict in neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo.

The country has been beset by ethnic tension associated with the traditionally unequal relationship between the dominant Tutsi minority and the majority Hutus.

Although after 1959 the ethnic relationship was reversed, when civil war prompted around 200,000 Tutsis to flee to Burundi, lingering resentment led to periodic massacres of Tutsis.

The most notorious of these began in April 1994. The shooting down of the plane carrying President Juvenal Habyarimana, and his Burundian counterpart, near Kigali triggered what appeared to be a coordinated attempt by Hutus to eliminate the Tutsi population.

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At a glance

Politics: Rwanda is trying to shake off its image associated with the 1994 state-sponsored genocide; the government argues the country is now stable

Economy: Growth exceeded 5% in the five years since 2001, driven by coffee and tea exports and expanding tourism; poverty is widespread and Rwanda is highly dependent on aid

Justice: The UN International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda (ICTR) has convicted 27 people for their involvement the 1994 genocide

In response, the Tutsi-led Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) launched a military campaign to control the country. It achieved this by July, by which time at least 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus had been brutally massacred.

Some two million Hutus fled to Zaire, now the DR Congo. They included some of those responsible for the massacres, and some joined Zairean forces to attack local Tutsis. Rwanda responded by invading refugee camps dominated by Hutu militiamen.

Meanwhile, Laurent Kabila, who seized control of Zaire and renamed it the DR Congo, failed to banish the Hutu extremists, prompting Rwanda to support the rebels trying to overthrow him.

Rwanda withdrew its forces from DR Congo in late 2002 after signing a peace deal with Kinshasa. But tensions simmer, with Rwanda accusing the Congolese army of aiding Hutu rebels in eastern DR Congo.

Rwanda has used traditional “gacaca” community courts to try those suspected of taking part in the 1994 genocide. But key individuals – particularly those accused of orchestrating the slaughter – appear before an International Criminal Tribunal in northern Tanzania.

The country is striving to rebuild its economy, with coffee and tea production being among its main sources of foreign exchange. Nearly two thirds of the population live below the poverty line.

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Although Guinea's mineral wealth makes it potentially one of Africa's richest countries, its people are among the poorest in West Africa.

Ruled by strong-arm leaders since independence, Guinea has been seen as a bulwark against instability in neighbouring Liberia, Sierra Leone and Ivory Coast. However it has also been implicated in the conflicts that have ravaged the region.

After independence in 1958 Guinea severed ties with France and turned to the Soviet Union. The first president, Ahmed Sekou Toure, pursued a revolutionary socialist agenda and crushed political opposition. Tens of thousands of people disappeared, or were tortured and executed, during his 26-year regime.

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At a glance

Politics: Military junta took control in December 2008 at the of death of President Lansana Conte, who seized power in a coup 24 years earlier. A provisional government supervised the transition to civilian rule at the end of 2010

Economy: Guinea is a leading bauxite exporter, but most of its people live on less than $1 a day

International: The US, the African Union and the European Union have imposed sanctions

Economic mismanagement and repression culminated in riots in 1977. These led to some relaxation of state control of the economy.

But it was only after the death in 1984 of Ahmed Sekou Toure, and the seizure of power by Lansana Conte and other officers, that the socialist experiment was abandoned – without reversing poverty.

In 2000 Guinea became home to up to half a million refugees fleeing fighting in Sierra Leone and Liberia. This increased the strain on its economy and generated suspicion and ethnic tension, amid mutual accusations of attempts at destabilisation and border attacks.

Acute economic problems, instability among its neighbours and uncertainty over a successor to its authoritarian president have prompted a European think-tank, the Crisis Group, to warn that Guinea risks becoming a “failed state”.

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MOGADISHU, Somalia – A spokesman for the African Union force in Somalia says gunmen have attacked one of their bases in the Somali capital.

Lt. Col. Paddy Ankunda says the gunmen tried to enter the base on Saturday but were stopped by AU troops. He says the gunfight was still going on and casualties were unclear.

Resident Mohammed Abdi says he heard several large explosions near the base but it was not clear what caused them.

About 9,000 AU troops are in Somalia supporting the weak U.N.-backed government against al-Qaida linked al-Shabab insurgents. The AU and government control almost all of the capital but the insurgents still launch daily attacks.

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